According to the European Commission, Poland will well resist to the economic crisis after the pandemic. The EU economy will face the biggest crisis since the Great Depression (in the early 1930s) with -7,3% of the GDP. Poland will be one of the country to resist the most with -4,3% of the GDP. Last year the GDP growth was +4,1%, Poland could be one of the EU countries to recover fast with +4,1% of the GDP in 2021.
The unemployment in EU will fall to 9% (6,7% last year), Poland will fall to 7,5% (3,3% last year and 5,3% expected in 2021). Greece and Spain should strongly feel the effect of the crisis with respectively 18,9% and 19,9% of unemployment expected. Germany should not be so impacted by the crises with 4% of unemployment (3,2% last year).
The fiscal deficit will be the negative point according to the EC Forecast. Poland will have the 4th worst fiscal deficit rise of the EU with 9% (Italy 11,1%, Spain 10,1%, France 9,9%). Poland will finance its debt relief by halting the recession and rising unemployment. The main consequence will be a limitation of the development of the country after the pandemic. The debt-to-GDP (for 2020-2021) is expected to reach 58,5% (43% in 2019 – 58,3% expected in 2021).
European Economic Forecast – Spring 2020